روانشناسی بازار به مجموعه احساسات و رفتارهای غالب کل فعالان بازار در هر بازه زمانی اشاره دارد. این واژه بیشتر توسط تحلیلگران و رسانه های مالی برای تفسیر حرکت بازار به کار می رود که امکان دارد با ویژگی های دیگر مانند فاندامنتال بررسی نشود.
روانشناسی بازار رفتار کلی یک بازار را بر پایه عامل های شناختی و عاطفی در شبکه تشریح می کند. این روانشناسی با روانشناسی تریدر کاملا بحث مجزایی است.
مباحث کلیدی
- ترس ، اضطراب ، حرص و هیجان همگی مباحث روانشناسی بازار هستند.
- روانشناسی مارکت ، بیانگر احساسات توافقی بازار بر اساس کلیه شرکت کنندگان در بازار است.
- طبق عقیده تئوری مالی رایج، قیمت ها همیشه براساس ملاحظات عقلانی است و تاثیرات غیرمنطقی روان شناسی بازار را شامل نمی شود.
درک روانشناسی بازار
روانشناسی بازار به صورت یک نیروی قدرتمند شناخته می شود. به طور مثال اگر سرمایه گذاران به صورت غیرمنتظره اعتماد خود را نسبت به سلامت اقتصاد از دست بدهند و شروع به عقب نشینی از خرید سهام کنند، شاخص هایی که قیمت های کلی بازار را بررسی می کنند، سقوط خواهند کرد. قیمت سهام بدون توجه به رویکرد مالی شرکت های آن ، کاهش می یابد.
ترس ، طمع ، سرخوشی و انتظارات ، به طور کلی از معیارهایی هستند که به روانشناسی بازار کمک می کنند. قدرت این ابعاد ذهنی برای وضع دوره ای ” ریسک زدایی ” و ” ریسک پذیری ” به کار گرفته می شود. به تعریف دیگر، چرخه های رکود و رونق در بازارهای مالی به خوبی ثبت شده است.
نظریه مالی رایج، یعنی تئوری بازار کارآمد EMH) ) ، به علت نداشتن حسابداری کافی برای روانشناسی بازار مورد نقد و بررسی قرار می گیرد. دنیایی را نشان می دهد که در آن همه فعالان بازار به طور منطقی رفتار می کنند و جهت احساسی بازار را به شمار می آورند.
ولی روانشناسی مارکت می تواند منجر به یک نتیجه ناگهانی شود که با بررسی اصول اولیه قابل انتظار نیست. به تعریف دیگر فرضیه روانشناسی بازار با نگرش بر اینکه بازارها منطقی اند ، مخالف هستند .
نکته: روان شناسی بازار بر اصول اساسی غلبه می کند و قیمت سهام را به جهتی غیر منتظره هدایت می کند.
پیش بینی روانشناسی بازار
به صورت کلی دو طریق برای انتخاب سهام توسط متخصصان صورت می گیرد و فقط یکی از آن دو روش به روانشناسی بازار توجه زیادی دارد.
- تحلیل بنیادی بازار به دنبال انتخاب سهام یا ارز مناسب از طریق بررسی پروژه های شرکت و یا کارکرد مالی شرکت است. روانشناسی بازار در این تحلیل نقش آنچنانی ندارد.
- تجزیه و تحلیل تکنیکال بر الگوها ، روندها و دیگر شاخص هایی که قیمت سهام را کم و زیاد می کند، تمرکز دارد. روانشناسی بازار یکی ازاین عوامل محرک است.
برای اطلاعات بیشتر مقاله بازار خرسی و بازار گاوی را مطالعه کنید
تحقیقات روانشناسی بازار
مطالعات بر روی روانشناسی بازار بر کارکرد و بازده سرمایه گذاری را بررسی کرده اند. دانیل کانمن روانشناس برنده جایزه نوبل و آموس تورسکی اقتصاددان، اولین کسانی بودند که نظریه بازار کارآ یا بازار کارامد (EMH) را به چالش کشیدند. بدین معنا که آنها این فرضیه را قبول نکردند که انسانها در بازارهای مالی همیشه تصمیمات منطقی را بر طبق اطلاعات در دسترس عموم و مرتبط در قیمت ها می گیرند.
در نقض این فرضیه، آنها در زمینه اقتصاد رفتاری پیش قدم شدند. مطالعات و تئوری آنها بر شناخت خطاهای منسجم در تصمیم گیری انسانی معطوف است که از موضع گیری شناختی مانند موضع گیری های اخیر و نفرت از دست دادن را ناشی می شوند.
کار آنها به طور وسیع تصویب شده است و در تجارت و مدیریت سبد سرمایه گذاری و استراتژی های سرمایه گذاری اعمال می شود.
خواندن مقاله ساخت ربات تریدر را به شما پیشنهاد می کنیم
سوالات متداول
از روانشناسی بازار چه چیزی می آموزیم؟
همان طور که می دانید فعالان بازار انسان هستند. بدین گونه بازارها به عنوان مجموعه ای از انتخاب انسان ها می توانند رفتارها و تمایلات غیر منطقی مثل نشاط نامعقول و فروش خوف آمیز را که منجر به حباب های قیمت دارایی می شود، نشان دهند.
مردم چگونه می توانند از روانشناسی بازار به نفع خود استفاده کنند؟
با انجام بررسی های خود، می توانید تعیین کنید که چه زمانی، احساساتی مثل طمع یا ترس، منجر به خرید یا فروش بیش از حد می شود. سپس می توانید معاملات بالعکس انجام دهید. هنگامی که دیگران بیش از حد خرید می کنند بفروشید و هنگامی که دیگران گران فروشی می کنند خرید کنید.
در کدام بازارها روانشناسی بازار حضور دارد؟
روانشناسی بازار برای تمامی گروه های دارایی، شامل اوراق قرضه، سهام و فارکس، نرخ بهره و ارزهای دیجیتال صورت می گیرد. به طور کلی از آن جایی که موضوع اصلی روانشناسی فرآیندهای روانی و مطالعه رفتار انسانی است و عامل اصلی همه بازارها انسان هستند، روانشناسی بازار در کلیه بازارها حضور دارد.
برای کسب اطلاعات بیشتر، خواندن مقاله ربات تیم تریدر را پیشنهاد می دهیم.
چگونه می توان روانشناسی بازار را سنجید؟
احساسات بازار شامل چندین شاخص است که می توان آنها را بررسی کرد، مانند VIX که سطح ضمنی طمع یا ترس را در بازار اندازه گیری می کند. با استفاده از ابزارهای تجزیه و تحلیل فنی می توانید برای ظهور احساسات در بازار بر طبق کارکرد و حجم پیشینه قیمت استفاده کنید.
چگونه: به راحتی در سهام با 0% کمیسیون سرمایه گذاری کنید
اگر احساس می کنید سرمایه گذاری کار مشکلی است، با eToro امتحان کنید. صمیمانه ترین مکان برای سرمایه گذاری با کاربرانی بیش از 25 میلیون، که استراتژی و نکاتی را به اشتراک می گذارند. سهام محلی و جهانی را با کمیسیون صفر بخرید و با سهام کسری آغاز کنید. سرمایه شما در معرض خطر است. دیگر هزینه ها اضافه می شود.
تفاوت روانشناسی بازار و روانشناسی معامله گری
همان طور که می دانید روانشناسی بازار یک احساس عمومی در بین فعالان بازار است که موجب خرید و فروش آنها می شود. همچنین این روانشناسی در مورد توصیف رفتار کلی یک بازار تحت تاثیرعوامل شناختی و عاطفی است.
ولی در روان شناختی معامله گر علاوه بر عوامل شناختی و عاطفی، صرفا یک فرد را می بینیم. به تفسیر دیگر روان شناسی معامله به جنبه های مختلف شخصیت و رفتارهای افراد که بر فعالیت های معامله گری او اثربخشی دارد، اشاره می کند.
چرا روانشناسی بازار مهم است؟
زمانی که از دید فنی به بازار نگاه می کنید، تصحیح خطاها به راحتی صورت می گیرد. به طور مثال هنگام بررسی معامله ای که به سرعت از آن خارج شده اید، به سادگی عوامل فنی که شما را مجاب به خروج از معامله کرده اند، ازنو تحلیل کنید. آن گاه به سراغ
نوسانگرهای مختلف و اندیکاتورها بروید و با گذشت زمان ، نقطه خروج را در مکان بهتری برگزینید. این هنگامی است که ما فقط از دید فنی بازار را بررسی می کنیم. هر چند اکثرا حتی داشتن بهترین استراتژی مالی موجب موفقیت نمی شود و معاملات ما را به معاملات سودده تغییر نمی دهد. این زمان است که روانشناسی بازار وارد می شود.
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روانشناسی بازار به ما کمک می کند :
هر رویه خاص بازار امکان دارد احساسات فعلی بازار را انعکاس دهد تا سود و یا ضرر چشمگیر در ارزش سهام. روانشناسی مارکت به ما می آموزد تا دانش کافی در مورد خود به عنوان یک سرمایه گذار به دست آوریم. بنابراین شناخت خود و شناخت روانشناسی بازار به عنوان یک سرمایه گذار، به ما این امکان را می دهد تا بررسی کنیم که آیا در مدیریت سرمایه خود به صورت کارکشته عمل می کنیم یا یک سرمایه گذار احساسی هستیم.
حل مسئله های ذهنی که بازدارنده موفقیت استراتژی های معاملاتی ما می شوند، راحت نیست. در حقیقت بیشتر مشکلات ذهنی در موارد آشکار پنهان شده و پشت تعصبات و موقعیت های مهم آسیب جدی به افراد تحمیل می کند.
از نکاتی که باید مورد توجه قرار گیرد این است که احساسات افراد بر روان آنها تاثیر می گذارد. بین عواطف، الگوهای رفتاری و روان افراد، رابطه مستقیم و نزدیک وجود دارد. واضح است که اگر انسان احساسات خود را کنترل کند، معامله بهتری نسبت به گذشته انجام خواهد داد. بنابراین کنترل احساسات نقش اثربخشی در موفقیت معامله گران خواهد داشت.
نتیجه
برای معامله گران و سرمایه گذاران مرسوم است که احساسات بر چرخه های بازار و قیمت ها تاثیر می گذارد و هر تریدر می داند که علم روانشناسی بازار و مدیریت سرمایه و همچنین آشنایی با روش های معاملاتی، راه موفقیت را می گشاید. قدرت مستقیم و تنبیهی این روانشناسی بر سرمایه گذاری افراد در بازارهای مختلف مالی غیر قابل تکذیب است. از این روی است که معامله گران با تسلط بر روانشناسی بازار و مطالعه کتاب ها و آموزش های مرتبط می توانند بهترین تصمیم ها را بگیرند.
شرکت رمزگشا با داشتن چندین سال سابقه در زمینه تحلیل ارزدیجیتال و فارکس فعالیت می کند. این دارای مشاوران متخصص می باشد. شما می توانید شما می‌توانید در هر ساعت از روز با مشاوران این شرکت در ارتباط باشید.
منابع:
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243 پاسخ به “روانشناسی بازار”
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